Wednesday, March 4, 2009

The next, next iPhone?


This summer, Apple is expected to release the third generation iPhone.

What? You mean the iPhone 3G released last summer wasn't the third generation iPhone? No. It only accessed AT&T's 3G network. Confusing, I know. I think Apple is going to have to do something to really avoid some confusion here. I expect them to just call it the iPhone 3. But I digress...

So with a refresh due, what will Apple do to continue to make the next generation iPhone attractive and to innovate in true Apple fashion? I have several ideas - er - guesses.

Hardware, Not Software
First, I think the major refresh will come in the form of hardware and design, not in software. This is because there are millions of iPhones currently in circulation from the first generation to the 3G that all run on the same platform - OSX mobile (or the iPhone OS). And since the accounting on those iPhones is spread across two years so as to be able to offer free software updates, the iPhone software will need to be able to run on legacy iPhones, for now, anyway. It's not unheard of for Apple to abandon old hardware in the name of newer, cooler software that will only run on newer systems. But considering that the original iPhone wasn't even released two years ago yet - and is still under Applecare warranty for those who bought it - I expect that the iPhone OS will continue to work as is for at least the next year. Apple has never released a new version of any OS that wouldn't run on any machine it sold in the previous couple of years. I don't expect any drastic software changes (meaning software that REQUIRES a new phone) until 2012 when AT&T's iPhone exclusivity expires in the United States.

1. Faster Processor
I do expect, however, for Apple to look for ways to make the iPhone experience better on the iPhone 3, such as a faster processor. The original iPhone and the 3G share the same processor. There have been quite a few technological advances in the past couple of years in mobile processing. I believe that Apple is either waiting for iPhone sales to plateau or for the next, next iteration to introduce a faster processor. It's selling like crazy right now at the current specs, so why rock the boat, right?

Faster processing would make video capture possible, which has been on my (and others') wish lists for the iPhone since its debut. Other cell phones - and smart phones - have this capability, and it's becoming a glaring shortfall. And Apple has applied for patents on some really cool technology that actually imbeds video cameras between pixels so that a physical camera isn't necessary. The entire phone surface could be the camera so you wouldn't have to turn the phone around. That would also make possible video conferencing right on the phone. But I may be a generation ahead of myself... Apple will probably put this technology in an iMac or MacBook first until they figure out how to shrink the technology down to iPhone size.

2. Different form factor
Contrary to rumor, I don't believe that we'll be seeing an iPhone Nano any time soon. The iPhone is perfectly sized. What good would a smaller screen be? As it is now, it can sometimes be difficult to hit the correct button when making a call. And try typing on a smaller non-physical keyboard. No thanks. The keyboard is perfectly sized as it is.

On the contrary- I expect the iPhone 3 to have a larger screen. The phone size itself won't be larger. It wouldn't fit well in jeans pockets (and then where would Steve Jobs pull it from when he introduces it?). There's some dead space on the front of the iPhone now. I expect the screen to encompass more of the front surface area. I also wouldn't be surprised if the technology I mentioned earlier used to hide a camera between pixels couldn't be used in the same way to hide the proximity sensor that is currently hidden beneath the glass near the ear speaker. A larger screen size would be better for web viewing, better for games and better for watching movies on the phone. I expect the ear speaker to be moved up into the bevel at the top of the phone (if there is a bevel, that is...).

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Home button go away and have its functionality merged with the button on the top of the phone. That would allow for corner to corner screen real estate, which would be AWESOME for movies and for games. When the phone is turned sideways, the natural place for the thumbs to rest is where the home button and the ear speaker currently reside, anyway.

3. Better camera
If a hidden pixel-cam isn't involved, I'd expect a better camera in the iPhone 3. The camera truly sucks on the iPhone now, and everyone knows it. I suspect it will get three or four megapixel resolution and I'd also expect the ability to zoom when shooting a photo. The technology exists on lesser phones and software that does just that is available on jailbroken iPhones now.

4. Better battery life
This one is like saying that the sun will rise tomorrow, but I think that Apple's recent R&D into battery cell technology that was implemented last fall in the MacBook Pro will allow for dramatically better battery life on the iPhone. And with video capability, it's going to need every ounce of juice it can get.

5. Unibody construction?
I doubt it, but it seems to be the way that Apple is moving with its computer products these days, so you never know... For those of you who don't know, unibody construction is when they take a solid piece of aluminum and actually carve away the inside, rather than piecing lots of pieces together to make up the body. A unibody iPhone would make it really, really drop-proof.

6. Thinner.
Not just thinner, but iPod Touch thin. Crazy thin. Like mind-numbingly thin. Unibody construction would allow this to happen and still be strong. And lighter. The iPhone now gets a little heavy on a long phone call, but a unibody iPod Touch-thin iPhone would weigh just ounces. I'm salivating just thinking about it.

7. Flash
No, not that Flash - more flash memory. I bet the next iteration will have up to 64GB, but I'd be really happy with 32. it's a safe bet since 32GB is available in the iPod Touch currently. But as for Adobe Flash... well, maybe. But the battery life I mentioned earlier would have to be a mandatory for that. Flash is a battery sucker.

8. Faster wireless
I expect the next iPhone to have 802.11n wireless. It has 802.11g currently, but I suspect that like the rest of its products, Apple is trying to move to all n-wireless. It's a better, faster experience that way. And I believe that the iPhone and the iPod Touch are now the only products Apple makes that don't have 802.11n wi-fi.

So those are the major revisions I expect to see in the iPhone over the next couple of years. I expect Apple will continue to make its hardware lust-worthy and then follow with software that is really cool and just works.

I realize I may be an iteration ahead of myself here because, but this is the direction I think the iPhone might be headed, given Apple's propensity for trying something out in one product while fully intending to use it on a different product in a much cooler, smaller way.  I, for one, can't wait.

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