Friday, January 8, 2010

Expectations vs. Reality - or - Why Should We Listen to These "Experts" on Anything Anymore?

From the NYTimes:

U.S. Economy Lost 85,000 Jobs in December; Unemployment Steady at 10%

The unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent, tempering
hopes for a swift and sustained recovery from the Great
Recession.

The monthly figures from the Labor Department included a
revision for November that showed a gain of 4,000 jobs, the
first increase in almost two years.


First of all, that's horribly written and misleading. How can you have a gain of 4,000 jobs when you also lost 85,000 jobs? That's bureaucratic math there, folks. In reality, it looks like there were 81,000 jobs lost last month.

And I heard on the radio this morning that the "experts" expected only a job loss of 8,000 jobs. And according to the Wall Street Journal, the number of expected job losses was 10,000.

So in November 11,000 people lost their jobs and unemployment "fell to 10%." Then in December 81,000 people lost their jobs and unemployment remained at 10%? Something doesn't quite sound right there. does it?

But let's go back a step. The experts were expecting only a 10,000 job loss and there were actually 81,000? That's an 800% overshoot! Holy crap!

No doubt these are the same "experts" who said we absolutely had to pass TARP and a massive stimulus bill in a matter of hours, without even giving anyone a chance to read it and to realize its potential for corruption.

Seriously. Why is anyone listening to these ass-clowns anymore, anyway?

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