Friday, June 10, 2011

Delusional Analysts and Pipe Dreams

From TGDaily:

Will WP7 trounce the iPhone in 2015?

Sales of Windows Phone 7 devices have thus far been rather underwhelming. But analysts at IDC believe Microsoft's WP7 platform, combined with Nokia's hardware expertise, will help the rapidly evolving OS outpace Apple's iPhone.

However, Llamas acknowledged WP7 will initially only capture a "small share of the market," as Mango-enabled devices are slated to hit store shelves in late 2011.

"Nevertheless, assuming Nokia's transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015," he predicted.

And Apple's iOS?

Well, IDC exepcts the iPhone to remain a primary force in the mobile market until at least 2015. After an initial "explosive growth period," iOS is projected to grow at a more modest pace as the smartphone market matures and diversifies.

Nice piece of delusional fiction here. What they fail to mention (and that their chart doesn't show with much clarity) is that before WindowsPhone7 can "trounce" the iPhone, it's got to go through Blackberry and everyone who has a Symbian handset will have to get rid of it in the next three years. And in addition - and this is the delusional part - the iPhone would have to remain static, not innovate, and fail to capture any more sizable market share and Android would have to only gain 5% more share. In other words, for this twisted reality to come true, the majority of phones sold over the next four years would have to be Windows phones in order to not only out-pace Blackberry, iPhone and Android, but also to counter all the existing hardware from those manufacturers out there. Granted, the average lifespan of a smart phone is only two years, but with news of more and more enterprise clients actively turning away from Windows Mobile in favor iOS and Android, I just don't see it happening.

There's a huge probability that Blackberry will fail to innovate and implode, potentially opening up market share for WP7, but it's just as likely that Blackberry customers would migrate to iPhone or Android first. This analyst is assuming that Nokia's market share, combined with a Windows phone would be such a juggernaut that they would be damn near unstoppable. And honestly, who wouldn't want a phone from two powerhouses of yesteryear tech? Both companies are floundering wildly and clinging to every ounce of credibility they have left. Just because the maker of crappy, buggy software and the maker of crappy, buggy hardware make a phone together doesn't mean it will be like two ugly people having a baby together - it doesn't guarantee a beautiful baby. Two negatives don't make a positive here.

So, the short answer is: "no." The long answer is "Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!"

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